Kyle Bass Blasts China's
"Most Lying, Coercive, Manipulative Government" For "Knowingly
Infecting The World" ; And why is Hong Kong’s situation particularly
perilous? Sat, 04/18/2020
…… 被問到香港將要面對的問題﹐Kyle Bass 認為香港的經濟已是無藥可救﹐因為香港的經濟太過貢桿化太過依賴地產。香港的房地產價格是全球最高的。香港銀行的資產負債是香港GDP的850%。當經濟突然下滑﹐後果不難語計。香港的金融和銀行體系會出現最可怕的災難﹐比任何地方和任何過去的例子都更嚴重。這個銀行災難會在今年發生。即使武漢疫情得以解決﹐香港的銀行災難都不可以避免。香港的好日子已一去不返。
…… 至於中共國﹐他也不樂觀﹐因為中共國的經濟也是高度貢桿化﹐他們銀行的資產負債是GDP的 350%。這是極度貢桿化的。
當然﹐即使出現更嚴重的危機﹐中共也可以控制。它們亦可以無限量發放人民幣。但是﹐當要把這些人民幣兌換外匯時﹐就知道有什麼價值了。
美國的銀行的資產負債只是美國GDP的1.3倍﹐比香港的8.5倍﹐和中共國的3.5 倍為低。
…… So you can’t take an economy that’s 850% levered of GDP in the banks
and turn it off, which is what’s happening.
Mr. Jekielek: Kyle, I’ve been speaking with a number of
friends in Hong Kong about this. People are deeply worried, including US
lawmakers. There has been an outpour of support from the west for Hong Kong.
But how can Hong Kong even be helped in this situation? It is a big question
mark in people’s minds. What can policymakers in the West do to help this? Or
is there anything?
Mr. Bass: The die is cast. The pattern is set. They
took on entirely too much leverage. Two of the largest banks in Hong Kong are
two British banks with essentially no British depositors and their bankruptcy
remote subsidiaries in Hong Kong. I think the die is cast. You can’t lever
an economy that much. You can’t have real estate values at astronomical prices,
and then all of a sudden turn the economy. You know what happens next,
everyone knows what happens next. It doesn’t take a genius to know that they
are going to have one of the ugliest banking crises that has ever happened to
any country anywhere in the world. That is going to happen this year. Even
if we come back from the Wuhan virus in the next few months, Hong Kong is
already finished.
So if the good people
of Hong Kong have fought the good fight, for those that can leave, I think they
should leave. I think that you and I both know the Chinese surveillance state
is going to be reviewing all the videos of the protests, and they’re just going
to summarily incarcerate people and rip their liberties away from them. Hong Kong is just going to become another
failed city within China. That is what’s going to happen. And it is going to
happen 27 years too early. We know the people that are going to execute it.
I know that is a grim view, but I can’t see another way out of this for Hong
Kong. There are 85,000 US citizens and 200,000 British citizens that live in
Hong Kong. You can bet this summer that they are all going to leave.
…… Their banking system is 350% of their GDP. They are uber-levered.
The leverage in their banks against real estate in tier one and tier two cities
in China is enormous. They are going to have a crisis just like we are. The
difference between crisis within China versus crisis out of China is that in
China, they control everything. How many
times have you heard? They are just China. They do what they want.
…… Internally, they print more RMB than any economy prints money anywhere
in the world. They control the printing press, they control the police, they
control the narrative, and they control the government. So internally, they can
fix things by printing a lot of their money. Again, that makes their money
worth a lot less when and if it ever converts to dollars, euros, yen or pounds.
……. So just imagine that our banks are one
times levered to our economy. And off balance sheet if you include Fannie
and Freddie, it’s about 1.3 times. China is 3.5 times levered, and Hong Kong
is 8.5 times levered. Just think about the negative convexity of those two
situations. They have got their hands full. They have 25 spinning plates, and
when one plate drops, they’re all gonna drop.
